# Day 7: Probability

October 16, 2008 by kltangen

Filed under 10-Day Tour

Moving from describing events to predicting their likelihood involves probabilities, odds, and the use of Fisher’s F test. Probabilities compare of an event to the total number of possible events (4 aces out of 52 cards equals a probability of .077). Odds compare sides: 4 aces in a deck against 48 cards that aren’t aces (which equals odds of 1:12).

Analysis of Regression (ANOR) is an application of probability to linear regression. The ANOR uses a F-test, which is a ratio of variances. It is the ratio of understood variance to unexplained variance. To find the likelihood that a regression can be explained by a straight line, the number derived from an F test is compared to a table of probabilities. If the value you calculated is bigger than (or equal to) the value in the book, the pattern you see in the data is unlikely to be due to chance.

NOW YOU CHOOSE:

Day 7: Probability

Bit More About Probability

Even More About Probability

Even More About ANOR

Calculate ANOR

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Basic Facts About Probability

Audio: Lectures

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Quiz 7

Summary

[…] For more information, see Day 7: Probability […]

[…] For more information, see Day 7: Probability […]

[…] For more information, see Day 7: Probability […]